1 . . . , !. ." , #.$.% , #.&.' " , (.!.) . ".!.% 119991, " ,% , .1, .12 .: (495)939-5560; e-mail: bulgakov@chronos.msu.ru - [11]. " , , " $ " . & " [46, 60, 75], 2025 . , 4-5 , - .. $ - . & , & $? 0 & - & - ." 35 [66], & $ 2 , 3 4.5.6 . 2 $ , 9.:.; - – $ 8 & - [11], & 2 , - , & $ [3]. [54] , 8 - : 2 1. : , 8, , , & - " - . 2. : & $ 8 , , , 3. . = . , , . 4. " 8 , ", . . , , & , - & $- 8 8 - . 5. " 1-4 - .: 8 . 6. 5 , " = ) $". 9 ( - , - , . 7. @ , , 9 . , , . , & , , , . , - 3 . = 8 = 8 , 5.A.B = 8 $ [2] & $ $ . , - = ." ( $ ). ( – – 7-8 ) 2 – 2 8-10. 4 & - 8 2 , . . $ 3-4, & , - , , 8, - , ( . . ) 2-3 [22]. & $ 8 . D 2 8 2 , .5 ( ) , ,= 2 - & - $ [2]. D ( ), , $ . , " $ , $ " ( = ), 8 –" " 4 ( ) [2]. E 8 , . 1. & A : 1. A = , 2. A , 3. A & 8 . . A = 8 , , 8 ." $ , 8 - $ - $ & & , , 8 $ .: - , , 2 $ = 8 8 , : , - .. 8 2 & " - , . . 8 - [4, 31, 37]. . = & – $ = - " ". 3 ,& , . 3 = - $ – & - , , - , , 8 - & 8 " 8 = . 5 - - = 2 , = 2 20 = , .F " " , , - 5 8 = = = $ $ [28]. 6 - " " & & = , , , , 2 , ."& - = - $. " & $ , , &== 8 , - , [11]. .0 - .. & - , $ (" , – [27]. G $ ") (" 8 & , 8 8 8 , 8 2 – ") & & - [4, 31, 37]. .: , – , .. , , , - – ." = & 2 .D & 8 $ 8 - . " 2 .. , & 2 , - . A - 6 .0 - , = 8 8 .@ .0 - & $ , 2 2 . . $ - & - : 1. A . H & . " $ ( ) , , - $ 8 . 2. " = & & & 8 , - & . 2. & " & - , ( - ) , , . 5 $ .9 = , $ - = . 3 - 7 , , , = 8 $ , , . I$ $ & $ , & .. –" , "– $ 2 = . J 2 - ." - , - $ $ , & . : , & , & - . . = & .. , == 8 , , - & - = - , - & 2 .0 , " , ", 8 8 $ 8 $ - ." $ $ = 8 , : I = , - $ 8 = A = = & 2 $ $ , , 8 - $ . : , 8 – 2 , 2 , . @ 2 $ , $ == 8 [34]. 5 , - 8 & 8 $ & 8 - [35]. A , [34]. F , , == $ - 8 $ - 8 8 , , , 8 $ .@ $ . 2 8 8 $ , 8 , . $ 8 - & , , . F $ $ , , .0 $ - &== 8 . (4 m $ w , $ , , == , $- 8 - , w + mw + m $ = 8 2w + 4mw .) . – $ – & $ , , , - $ . 5 = - 8 8 == ( ) . 9 $ & 8 - . - 8 , , $ , 2 , & , ." 9 : , 2 L - , . , , & $ " ", 8 8 .9 $ , = 8 2 "8 = , , = 8 - = 8 , $ " - 5. .I & 8 [77]; 8 [85]; [47]; 8 - 8 - : 8 & 8 8 8 $8 [10]; 8 [32, 78]; 8 [36]; 8 - 8 [65], [83]; [42]; [25]; 8 8 8 & [26]; 8 [86]; & [34] 8 [13]; $ 8 8 - & [17]; [23]; 8 - 8 - & [24]; [81]. . , - [63]; 8 8 8 8 8 8 [29]; - 2 .".H [68, 72, 80], 8 ,& $8 [84]. " & ( & "8 & 8 ", , ." & = ), - & . M $ $ & 8 , & 8 10 = 8 [82]. . & [30]. " 8 & , &== 8 , ,& & & $8 , 8 8 9 ,& [56, 59, 69, 70]. G 2 8 8 2 2 [12]. 2 = & 8 . & 8 - , L $ & & $ = 8 - , , & . , & & – - $ & [39, 55]. 3 4.5.6 [11], , 8 , , 8 & , .A 2 2 , , 2 .4 - – , = , . . - & $ $ $ 8 , $ [3, 49]. 4 , & & , , 11 [38, 55, 67, 71]. F , 5.O.0 $ , $ , & $ 2 3 M ,3 - 3 - [43]. , " .A " , 2 . & & . $ 4.5.6 [11], $ - , ".".A 2 [19]: " - , , $ - , , - ( ), , , & = , $ - 8 $ , P ". , , – $ .4 8 , – - & - & 8 , & 8 $, . . = & - & $ . - , $ , , & , - , - 12 " , . . , $ $ , : , , .D ," & == ", $ 8 = , 8 , 8 = - . E 2 = 8 $ & , , .: 2 $ , & - , $ - , = 8 .9 $ - , $ 8 - 2 , - , 2 . . : , 8 $ , , $ - , . . & & = 8 & 8 8 & & . 5 , E Q.5.J $ &== , - [33]. G , , - . 8 8 $ - 8 $ = 8 & . 13 6 & , x(t0), t0), . . & x(t). 9 , 8 $ , $ ; 4) = ; 6) ; 7) ; 9) ; 12) ; 10) ; 13) ; 15) = ; 14) ; 16) ; 17) .A ( ( 8 ; 5) = ; 8) = - ; 2) ; 3) ; 11) . .A - : 1) & 8 t (t > & & – , 20 ) E - , , ), - . , $ 8 2 [79]. " $ = - , , , ." - 2 & - . 9 , [50, 61]. " = , - 9 : 3 ") B @ , [18]. : - B 5 8 ("3 - 14 = 8 . 0 - 8 . = = 8 = = 8 $ ( 2 8 = = . = = = = $ ) 8 : $ .G , $ . . = - = [48]. . 8 - 8 & 2 - [45]. " - &== , A 8 8 2 (9 G , . . & P ). 0 - $ 2 , - $ & $ - [7, 8]. A 8 - = , 8 " = ,& = = ), ( " ; ( , 8 ). , 8 , D 8 ( = ), - 15 ( , ). F , - [64]. 0 8 H - (" ) CLAMM, HADCM2. 9 8 2 90 [51]. : & , FINNECO, $ , $ EPAECO [14]. EPAECO & , 2 - FINNECO – , $ == 2 . $ , EPAECO, FINNECO , , , ( & ) .6 2 FINNECO = - $ 8 8 - , 8 $ - ; - ( EPAECO 2 ); $ , H 2 ; ; - = 8 - 16 – 8 , 8 = - . " 4.5.6 [11] = 8 $ - 8 - &== : = .A 8 2 .F 2 = 5 8 [53], , = = = 8 [41], 9M5, = = = 8 [76] - [52]. 5 $ 9 2 . , 3 $ . A , LAKE [54] 8 - 8 8 - & .G , - $ SALMOSED, = = 7 , 2 2 , 2 [40, 73]. O = = 8 , 2 $ (OG9), $ ."& 2 , . 17 [44]. " & [62]. a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b , - 8 , ".0.H [33]. . - & 999E, 1930-1950- ., [21]. P 8 , , ( = = , .. $8 8 .3 ,= , 8 8 ) = = = - .. .F , & , $ = - 21 (3 ) 3 " - .6 3 , & ( , $ ) 2 ." 2 2 $ ( " 2 8 - 2 ). 8 . & = , - 8 ( )– 2 8 .F , 8 = - , $ $ $ .B , - .A 2 E ,3 7 : – 2 – ," 5 – 2 ," 8 – .@ 6 – 3-4- , = , – & 28 . 2 1. 6 8 = 4 – = &== , ,O 8 7-10 P – , , - = - 23- ,3 8, & . F , G & - $ - : , . - 22 2. @ = 8 8 .0 $ = , $ & , 2 $ = 8 $ .0 - , - & , = 8 - ." - - , " (http://ecograde.belozersky.msu.ru) - 2 - ": = = - , 999E. : - , & , , 0 3. . . 2 - ( , [31, 37]. " & & , . " & & $ = = & , , 8 . .) & , $ $ $ . , , , = $ & . F = 8 = ( , 23 & P $ = , & - (:0P), = , - - - ." = :0P & $ , , , 8 8 . 2 F & 8 8 - , = . 8 8 & & , :0P , 8 , & , 2 $ & - & 8 . := , 8 :0P. 8 ). & 8 :0P 8 - , & 8 . 0 , 8 , , 8 " 2 & , :0P = , . @ , 8 ,8 00:). 6 .( , :0P 1991 . - 1978-1990 8 [6]. 9 & = , 0 - $ . 8 8 , & = - 24 8 8 1991 . 8 &== , - . F $ :0P 1991 . 2 $ = $ , :0P $ (100% = $ , , - 2 , = - 1991 . " 89% ) - .@ (43%), , 1991 . , 5 . $ 5.".I ..5.b - . E E ( = = 07-04-00045 , 09-07-00204 ). 9 G9.3 IGF4E5FPEw 1. " #.$., & '.(. // F . . 9 " . .A =. :G - G@E., 2004. 9. 197-199. 2. & ". ., ) &.*., & + & 3. & A.: @ .@ ".*. // 9 , 1985. 9. 12-24. ). . - :@ , 1985. 126 . $ . 25 4. 5. & ,- $... // @ A.: 6 , 1983. z5. 64 . & + , . 9 . «B ). . 3 & .9 6. , &+ .. /., 0 ». - :G - - , 1987. 104 . ". )., $. H. // G E5H. 9 . . 1997. z 3. 9. 374-379. 7. &+ , $.$. // 5 = :" 8 8 .F . 8. &+ , $.$. // F . E5@. F 9. .b , 2002. 9. 40-41. . 9 , ,9 2 - O , 2006. 9. 32. &. ., '. . // " . . 2007. F. 34. z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c. ..6. : .@ 25. . . 1980. z 5. 9. 100. & 24. , 1971. 196 . , 2001. 192 . H 23. - :@ ".*. 8 8 , 1982. 112 c. 8 . 3 : G - 3 . . - , 1974. 123 c. 26. ! !. 8 . A.: A , 1969. 215 c. 27 27. ! 8 /.6. // D = . A.: G - AOP, 1983. " .8. 9.86-108. 28. !79 './., 0. ., ) & 29. .@ 6 4 :. . // J 4 :. ., 0 /.). O & :@ , 1984. 217 . . 1991. F. 52. z 6. 9. 840- 853. 30. 6 . A.: @ 31. 6 32. ' 2.5. 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P. 161-174. 32 E = & = 8 & : ), , .E ), $ $ ." , = & 8 - ( ( 8 .9 , $ , .3 & , ( , .0 & ) , $ 8 . The literary overview of methods of ecological prediction is carried out. The classification of predictions is made up: by degree of homogeneity of describing ecosystem (point or distributed), by time of forecast (short-term, intermediate-term and long-term), by level of detailing. Qualitative and quantitative forecast are distinguished. In turn, in the qualitative forecast it is possible to mark out morphological analysis, method of expert estimations, analog method. The quantitative methods of ecological prognostication can be identified with the simulation, directed toward the quantitative prediction (calculation) of the indicator biological indices, as a rule, of the numbers of forms or other groups of organisms. Imitation and regression models are used for this.