Tin Market Overview

Tin Market Overview
Key Areas of Tin Application
World Tin Consumption Structure
Glass 2%
Other 8%
Chemicals 14%
Brass & Bronze 6%
Tin plating 16%
Solder 54%
Tin is an indispensable metal for electronic, chemical and food packaging
industry
Source: ITRI
Tin World Consumption Dynamics
Average consumption growth, 1970-2014
 The tin consumption growth in solders is
mainly due to environmental restrictions
in lead application in place in EU, USA
and other countries;
Iron Ore
Copper
Aluminium
 Global tin application in key areas,
apart from solders generally remains
stable since 2004 despite price rises.
Nickel
Crude
Tin
0.00%
Since 2000
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
Tin World Consumption Dynamics
400
 Stable long-term growth.
350
Solder
300
250
Tin plating
200
Chemicals
150
Brass & Bronze
100
Glass
50
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Other
2000
0
Source: ITRI
 Demand for the metal increased in the 2000 due to
the transition to lead-free solders applications based
on new regulations in China, EU and Japan (IDEALS).
 IDEALS Program is designed to increase service life of
electronics and improve environmental aspect of
electronics production while transiting to lead-free
soldering.
GLOBAL TIN PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
GEOGRAPHY
World Consumption Structure
Other countries; 7%
Japan, 8%
Tin production, Ktpa
USA, 9%
Russia
China, 41%
Australia
Malaysia
Vietnam
Brazil
Congo
SE Asia, 18%
*Syrymbet Production forecast
Kazakhstan
Bolivia
Peru
Indonesia
EU, 17%
China
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Source: ITRI
Tin price historical chart
30 000
Tin price, $
25 000
Current tin price= $20, 500
20 000
15 000
ITC regulations
Strategic
reserves sales
10 000
Reserves purchase in
USA
5 000
Production growth –
Malaysia, Thailand
0
Source: ITRI
EU, China,
Japan Production
RoHS
growth - directives
Indonesia
Tin Market Balance and Tin Price Dynamics
2005
Tin production, K t
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
346,7
357,1
353,8
339,5
335,6
354,6
354,3
334,7
338,4
345,8
7,7
9,3
7,7
3,7
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
335,5
367,7
372,7
350,7
322,3
362,2
359,4
339,5
348,3
356,6
18,9
-1,3
-11,2
-7,5
13,3
-7,6
-5,1
-4,8
-9,9
-10,8
LME
16,7
13,0
12,2
7,8
26,8
16,4
12,1
12,8
9,7
7,0
Producers
20,9
24,1
25,7
35,4
28,0
20,8
25,0
15,9
14,1
12,0
Buyers
11,4
12,6
13,7
12,5
11,6
11,1
9,6
10,7
11,0
10,0
49
49,7
51,6
55,7
66,4
48,3
46,7
39,4
34,8
29
Government reserves sales, K t
Tin consumption, K t
Market balance, K t
Stock reserve distribution
Total
Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics, ITRI, US Bureau of Mines
Price scenarios to 2023
US$/tonne
60,000
Central Forecast
50,000
Weak demand scenario
40,000
Forecast range
2019 – 2023:
$20,000 - $50,000/t
Supply constraint scenario
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2007
Source: ITRI
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
ТОР 10 Metal Tin Producers
#
Company
2013, Kt
1
Yunnan Tin (China)
69,760
2
Malaysia Smelting Corporation
37,792
3
PT Timah (Indonesia)
29,600
4
Minsur (Peru)
25,399
5
Thaisarco (Thailand)
22,847
6
Yunnan Chengfeng (China)
16,600
7
Guangxi China Tin (China)
14,034
Syrymbet (Kazakhstan)
12,000 - 14.000*
8
Metallo Chimique (Belgium)
11,350
9
EM Vinto (Bolivia)
10,800
10 Gejiu Zi-Li (China)
7,000
*Production Forecast
Source: ITRI
Why today is the best time to invest in tin
1. Global tin shortage – recent years production level is below consumption and the situation
deteriorates.
2. Low level of stock inventory – a current global metal tin stock inventory may sustain a 34day consumption as compared to 1960, when the stock inventory would sustain years of
global demand
3. The days of easy-to-mine Asian placer tin are now over. For instance, production dropped
from 77 Kt to 2 Kt in Malaysia, from 35 to 2 K t in Thailand, from 140 to 80 K t in Indonesia.
Tin production cost is up to $25,000 /t.
4. Due to low tin prices in the 1990 and 2000 there haven’t been any new deposits
developed; there is no any option as to quickly rump up the production in place of depleted
deposits. All major current operations have already seen their production top and are
currently in recession.
5. Tin part in cost of ANY final product is below 1% (averaging 0.1-0.2%). Any future tin
price rise will not have any impact. Tin is an absolutely green metal, posing no harm to
human.
6. Tin price is expected to rise.