Воздействие и последствия кризиса в Литве

Воздействие и
последствия кризиса в
Литве
Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) 2008
• Lithuania’s economic miracle continues
unabated. With one of the highest growth
rates in Europe and a marked decrease in
unemployment, the country now enjoys
the benefits of reforms implemented
during the 1990s.
• EU accession in 2004 further bolstered the
country’s continuing economic miracle.
Source http://www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de/fileadmin/pdf/Gutachten_BTI_2008/ECSE/Lithuania.pdf
Eastern Europe overtakes East Asia
on ‘Ease-of-Doing-Business’
• WASHINGTON, D.C., September 26,
2007 – Thanks to reforms of business
regulation, more businesses are starting
up, finds Doing Business 2008
• Countries in Eastern Europe and the
former Soviet Union reformed the most in
2006/07 — along with a large group of
emerging markets, including China and
India.
• Baltic States EE, LV, LT in the top 30
Source: http://www.doingbusiness.org/documents/Press_Releases_08/DB_08_Global_English.doc
The ‘Baltic Tigers’ GDP Growth Rates 2006
Labour productivity per person employed
Global Property Guide, 2007
The ‘Hard Landing’ scenario
Michael Hudson (2008) ‘Fading Baltic miracle’
The International Economy, Winter 2008
• Instead of promoting industrial investment and
rising living standards, post-Soviet policy has
permitted political operators, Red directors, and
outright criminals to obtain and sell off assets in
the public domain or collateralize them for
foreign loans. The flat tax on labor has been set
so high as to make it uncompetitive, while the
property tax is so low as to spur a real estate
bubble. The experiment seems doomed to
collapse as a result of trade and debt
dependency, extending credit to make quick
capital gains, not to increase self-sufficiency and
labor productivity.
Динамика валового
национального продукта (ВВП)
ЛИТВА
ЛАТВИЯ
ЭСТОНИЯ
Процессы банкротства
предприятий
Pradėtų bankroto procesų skaičius
Iš viso per metus:
1000
957
900
Iš viso per metus:
Iš viso per metus:
799
772
800
Iš viso per metus:
292
759
Iš viso per metus:
709
700
Iš viso per metus:
590
Iš viso per metus:
283
621
200
100
169
171
176
196
147
606
178
228
446
207
128
222
222
186
164
446
145
124
Iš viso per I ketv.:
113
125
171
Iš viso per metus:
157
169
400
300
181
196
600
500
195
176
170
170
201
185
2002 m.
2003 m.
2004 m.
2005 m.
2006 m.
151
215
0
2001 m.
I ketvirtis
II ketvirtis
III ketvirtis
2007 m.
IV ketvirtis
2008 m.
2009 m.
Процедуры банкротства (в
процентах) согласно числу
зарегистрированных компаний
Pradėtų bankroto procesų skaičiaus dalis įregistruotų įmonių skaičiuje
įm.sk.
%
12000
25,0
10849
10512
23,2
9852
10000
9202
20,0
8926
8594
8274
8000
7538
15,0
6708
11,1
10,6
6000
10,3
9,2
8,7
10,0
7,0
4000
6,2
5,4
3,9
415
5,0
1923
2000
590
799
621
709
773
759
606
957
446
0
0,0
2000 m.
2001 m.
Įregistruotos įmonės
2002 m.
2003 m.
Pradėti bankroto procesai
2004 m.
2005 m.
2006 m.
2007 m.
2008 m.
2009 m. I ketv.
Pradėtų bankroto procesų skaičiaus dalis įregistruotų įmonių skaičiuje, (%)
Безработица в Литве
Безработица среди социальных
групп
Ситуация на рынке труда
Динамика минимальной
ежемесячной заработной платы
800
800
700
700
600
550
600
550
500
500
450
400
300
200
100
0
Min. alga
2003.09.01. 2004.05.01. 2005.07.01.
450
500
550
2006
550
2007.01.01. 2007.07.01
600
700
2008
800
Доход (bruto) полностью занятых
служащих в стране в 2007 и 2008
Средняя ежемесячная
заработная плата
Средний ежемесячный (bruto) доход в стране, по типам
экономической деятельности, в первой четверти 2009
Lithuania should apply to IMF for loan
without delay - SEB analyst
• March 24, 2009 Lithuania should apply to
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for
a loan as soon as possible, Gitanas
Nauseda, adviser to president of SEB
bank
• According to the latest forecasts by SEB
Bank, Lithuania’s gross domestic product
(GDP) might decline by some 9% this
year. However, the plunge might be
sharper and reach up to 15 %.
•
Source: http://irzikevicius.wordpress.com/2009/03/24/lithuania-should-apply-to-imffor-loan-without-delay-gdp-may-plunge-up-to-15-pct-analyst
/
Migration in numbers – past 10 years
• Lithuania – 431 thousand (around 12% of
population);
• Latvia – 150 thousand (around 7% of
population);
• Estonia – 60 thousand (around 5% of
population).
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