Глобальное потепление климата и автотранспорт

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GLOBAL WARMING AND MOTOR TRANSPORT
P. Kanilo, Professor, Doctor of Technical Sciences, V. Solovey, Professor,
Doctor of Technical Sciences, N. Vnukova, Associate Professor, Candidate of
Geographical Sciences, KhNAHU
Abstract. Numerous publications on the so called global warming on the Earth planet have been analysed. It is pointed out at vagueness in forecasting assessments of this phenomenon including lack of
analysis in levels of changing movable balance between natural sources of hothouse atmospheric
emissions and their drainage. The conclusion is being proved that present-day warming of surface air
to a considerable degree is a man-made problem.
Key words: global warming, greenhouse gases, combustion of fuels, energetics, motor transport, ecological indices.
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E%(..(( =<2 - +,%/.L&25 (T1) $+ 6&2(/: .
1970 A 6/ 2010 A. %/3'/ .>(,+,? /,'/.(,&*?'/ .,+4(*?';%( (*( :+3& 6/'(3+81(%(.0
(–UT1), -.*&:.,-(& 5%&'?J&'(0 $&*&'/9 %+..; '+ 6*+'&,&. D/A*( ,+)3& ,/*?)/ .'(3+,?.0, 6/ .2+-'&'(8 . 1970 A., 52/-'( E%(..(9
=<2 . 6/-&27'/.,( %(2/-/A/ /)&+'+ (–UT3), ,/% >(.*&, -.*&:.,-(& $+A20$'&'(0 -/: ( 6/-;J&'(0 )/'B&',2+B(9 =<2 - ,2/6/.L&2&. @
2&$5*?,+,& /.,+8,.0 ,2( (.,/>'()+, .6/./4.,-581(7 6/-;J&'(8 52/-'&9 '+)/6*&'(0
=<2 - +,%/.L&2& - 6&2(/: . 1970 A. 6/
2010 A.: .'(3&'(& 52/-'&9 .,/)/- =<2 ($
,2/6/.L&2; (T2, T4), -.*&:.,-(& E)/B(:+ 4(/.L&2; (5A'&,&'(&, :&A2+:+B(0 ( 5'(>,/3&'(&
L/,/.(',&$(2581(7 ./.,+-*081(7 '+ .5J&
( - /)&+'&) ( 6/-;J&'(& 52/-'&9 -;42/./=<2 . 62/:5),+%( .3(A+'(0 ,/6*(- (T5). H/.,
-;42/./- =<2 - ,2/6/.L&25 62( :;7+'(( -.&
5-&*(>(-+81&9.0 >(.*&''/.,( '+.&*&'(0
6*+'&,; O&%*0, )+) 45:&, 6/)+$+'/ :+*&&, 0-*0&,.0 '&$'+>(,&*?';% ( %/3&, >+.,(>'/
(*( 6/*'/.,?8 )/%6&'.(2/-+,?.0 .'(3&'(&% -;42/./- =<2 62( :;7+'(( 3(-/,';7 ($$+ 5%&'?J&'(0 (7 )/*(>&.,-+ '+ 6*+'&,&.
0,3 540
M CO2
U t - , 580
%=
0,4 560
0,2 520
0,1 500
0
480
CCO2
t@
N
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2,9 N ,
%*2:
2,8 >&*.
2,7
6,6
2,6
5,6
2,5
4,6
2,4
3,6
1970 1980 1990 2000 F/:;
H(.. 3. 2/-'( ($%&'&'(0 6+2+%&,2/- ,2/6/.L&2; O&%*( ( >(.*&''/.,( '+.&*&'(0
#$ 62&:.,+-*&'';7 :+'';7 .*&:5&,, >,/ $+
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CCO2 (,2/6.) – . 480 :/ 600 %*' (%+.); %+../-/& ./:&23+'(& =<2 - ,2/6/.L&2& $ '+
600·109 , (. 2,4·1012 :/ 3,0·1012 ,), ,.&. '+ 25 %
6/ .2+-'&'(8 . 1970 A., >,/ - .2&:'&% ./.,+-*0*/ &3&A/:'58 62(4+-)5 ~ 15·109 , =<2;
t@ V 0,6 °=, ,.&. 62/(.7/:(*/ 6/-;J&'(&
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-/$:57+ 62(%&2'/ '+ 0,1 °= 62( 2/.,& ./:&23+'(0 =<2 - ,2/6/.L&2& '+ 100 %*2:. ,.
K2(2/., '+.&*&'(0 6*+'&,; ./.,+-*0*
~ 83 %*' >&*/-&) - A/:, >,/ %/A*/ 62(-/:(,?
62( &A/ :;7+'(( ) :/6/*'(,&*?'/%5 2/.,5
52/-'&9 -;42/./- =<2 - ,2/6/.L&25 ~ '+
0,04"109 , [2], >,/ .//,-&,.,-/-+*/ ~ 2 % /,
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- +,%/.L&2& /.,+'&,.0 '&($%&''/9, ,/ &A/
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200 %*2: , (2(.. 3) ( ./.,+-(, ~ 3,2·1012 ,, 62(
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(.)/6+&%;7 ,/6*(- ( -;42/./- =<2 - ,2/6/.L&25 . 62/:5),+%( (7 .3(A+'(0 62&:.,+-*&'; - ,+4*. 1 [8, 10]).
S+4*(B+ 1 D(2/-/& 6/,2&4*&'(& ,/6*(( -;42/.; -2&:';7 -&1&.,- . 62/:5),+%(
(7 .3(A+'(0
K/,2&4*&'(&
K/ A/:+%
,/6*(- (
1970A. 1980A. 1990A. 2000A. 2009A.
-;42/. @@
C&L,?,
%*' , '.E./A/:
1528 1800 2234 2338 3278
CO 2 , %*' ,/A/: 7123 9417 9954 11221 12089
60
65
70
80
NO X , %*' ,/A/: 46
7
SO 2 , %*' ,/A/:
SW *, %*' ,/A/: 5,6
MK * (" ), ,/A/: 100
K2(2/:';9 A+$,
%*' , '.E./A/:
CO 2 , %*' ,/A/:
9
10
11
12
7,5
134
8,0
142
9,0
150
10
177
899 1297 1769 2176 2653
2173 3163 4312 5335 6641
24
27
29
35
NO X , %*' ,/A/: 19
SO 2 , %*' ,/A/: 0,03 0,033 0,04 0,044 0,05
SW , %*' ,/A/: .*&:; .*&:; .*&:; .*&:; .*&:;
MK (" ), ,/A/: .*&:; .*&:; .*&:; .*&:; .*&:;
A/*?,
%*' , '.E./A/:
CO 2 , %*' ,/A/:
NO X , %*' ,/A/:
SO 2 , %*' ,/A/:
SW ($/*+),
1322 1751 1854 2095 2284
6745 7955 9825 10800 12400
28
36
40
44
52
92
108
134
147
173
6
7
9
10
12
%*' ,/A/:
5,6
7,2
8,0
8,8
10,4
MK (" ), ,/A/:
=5%%+2'/& )/*(>&.,-/:
S/6*(-+,
3749 4848 5857 6609 8215
%*' , '.E./A/:
CO 2 , %*' ,/A/: 15141 19310 22674 25300 31130
NO X , %*' ,/A/: 93 120 132 143 167
SO 2 , %*' ,/A/: 99 117 144 158 185
19
24
SW , %*' ,/A/: 11,6 14,5 17
105,6 141,2 150 168,8 187,4
MK , ,/A/:
@;42/. @@, 62(-&:&'';9 ) NO2 200 260 290 320 370
(kNO2 = 3), %*' ,
S&6*/-/& -/$:&9210 272 320 366 426
.,-(& '+ <=,
F!3/A/:·10–9
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#$ 62(-&:&'';7 - ,+4*. 1 :+'';7 .*&:5&,,
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~ 31 %*2: ,, ,.&. 62+),(>&.)( '& 62&-;J+*(
1 % /, .5%%+2'/A/ %+../-/A/ '+)/6*&'(0
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62/:5),+%( .3(A+'(0 ,/6*(- =<2 (6/ .2+-'&'(8 . 1970 A.), ,/ /'( 4;*( 4; .51&.,-&''/ %&'?J&, >&% :/6/*'(,&*?'/ '+)/6*&'';&
52/-'( =<2 - ,2/6/.L&2& ) 2010 A.
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= 4/*?J/9 .,&6&'?8 -&2/0,'/.,( %/3'/ 5,-&23:+,?, >,/ 5-&*(>&'(& ./:&23+'(0 =<2 ,2/6/.L&2& . 1971 :/ 2009 AA. - /.'/-'/%
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2/.,+ (7 )/'B&',2+B(9 - +,%/.L&2&.
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+
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