Optimum Selection for Identified Major Genes

Where will all the pigs be raised?
Global Economics Vs Food Security and other Politics
Jerry Thompson
Genus Director
Russia and Asia Pacific
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Introduction
1. Global Economic Overview
– The PIC World Pork Competitive Survey
2. Non-economic Factors
– From Food Security to Customer Demand
3. Showcase on China
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
The Challenge
• Double food output by 2050
using 50% of the water that we
use today
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
World Meat Production and Trade
• Meat Production grows at 1.8% per year
• Meat Trade grows at 3.4% per year
Fapri 2010 World Agriculture Outlook
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Per Capita Meat Consumption
• Pork first choice among consumers
• 2019: 55 Kgs of Pork, Chicken and Beef
Fapri 2010 World Agriculture Outlook
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
World Pork Production and Trade
• Production grows at 1.6% / Year
• Trade grows at a rate of 2.8%
Fapri 2010 World Agriculture Outlook
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Who is Eating
Pork?
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Per Capita Pork Consumption (Kgs/person)
Philippines
Brazil
Mexico
Japan
Chile
Russia
Australia
Canada
United States
South Korea
China
EU27
0
Fapri 2010 World Agriculture Outlook
10
20
30
40
50
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Selected Net Importer Countries
Fapri 2010 World Agriculture Outlook
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
The PIC World Pork
Competitive Survey
• Objective:
– Quantitative study of key success factors that
positively or negatively impact growth in pork
production in selected countries
• 70 Industry
countries
leaders
from
15
different
• Focus on: USA, Canada, EU-27, Chile,
Mexico, China, Japan, Brazil, Argentina,
Australia, South Korea, Phillipines.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Industry Key Success Factors
STRUCTURAL FACTORS
Corn Prices
Land Availability
Labor Efficiency
Farm Productivity
Local Demand for Pork
Pork Quality Standards
POLITICAL & SOCIAL FACTORS
Pork is Country´s Strategic
Government Subsidies
Local Food Safety Regulation
Level of Environmental Laws
Welfare Pressure
Country´s Animal Disease Control
COST
COMPETITIVENESS
Level of Cost of Production
% Feed Cost / Total Cost
Cost per Sow in New
Project
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Ability to Compete?
Better
Political & Social Factors
85
80
75
Canada
China
70
65
Brazil
Japan
60
Philippines
Chile
Argentina
EU27
55
Mexico
USA
50
Australia
45
45
50
55
Worst
PIC 2010 World Pork Competitive Survey
60
65
Structural Factors
70
75
80
85
Better
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
What about Cost?
Better
4
Argentina
Cost of Production
3
Brazil
USA
Chile
2
Canada
Mexico
1
EU27
Japan
Australia
0
45
50
55
China
60
65
70
75
80
85
Philippines
-1
Worst
Structural Factors
PIC 2010 World Pork Competitive Survey
Better
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Non-Economic Factors
Food Security
The availability of food and our
access to it
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
China’s Twelfth Five Years Plan
Date:16 March 2011
•
把握“一个重点任务”，按照科学发展的要求来加快
现代农业的发展。在工业化和城镇化的过程当中，同
步推进农业现代化。另外，要突出“一条主线”，就
是要加快农业发展方式的转变，继续调整和优化产业
结构。
•
紧紧围绕“两个目标”，就是把保证国家粮食安全、
持续发展我们的粮食生产作为首要目标，把持续快速
的增加农民收入作为农业农村经济工作的中心目标.
•
提高“三个能力”，提高农业的综合生产能力、农业
的抗风险能力和农业的市场竞争能力。
•
在“十二五”要下大力气推进“四化”，农业生产经
营的专业化、标准化、规模化和集约化。
•
强化“五大支撑”，强化农业发展的政策支撑、科技
支撑、装备支撑、人才支撑、体制机制支撑
•
•
Ⅰ
Speed up the development of modern agriculture.
•
•
•
Ⅱ
Guarantee the safety and develop our production capacity.
Take increasing farmers income as the top priority in agriculture
economy development.
•
•
•
•
Ⅲ
Improve overall agriculture production levels
Strengthen anti-risk capability
Enhance competitive edges
•
•
Ⅳ
Promote agriculture business to be more specialization, more
standard, more systematization and more intensification.
•
•
Ⅴ
Support agriculture development with preferential policies, advanced
technology and equipment, talented people and optimized mechanism.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
The ‘Putin Plan’ for Russia
•
2-й этап Программы
реализуется в 2013-2020 гг.
Цель увеличить маточное поголовье до
2.85 млн свиноматок с общим поголовьем
до 35 млн голов (при умеренном
сценарии) или до 45 млн (при
инновационном сценарии)
основные задачи для достижения плана:
1.
улучшение экономических условий работы
свиноводства России, обновление
племенного потенциала, повышение
конкурентоспособности и экономической
эффективности производства свинины
2.
создание и развитие сети селекционногенетических центров с первоклассным
научно-технологическим потенциалом
3.
реконструкция действующих и создание
новых производственных мощностей в
товарном свиноводстве в рамках
различных организационных моделей и
форм хозяйственной деятельности
4.
Развитие предприятий по убою и
мясопереработке кормовой базы
свиноводства, повышение качества
кормов
5.
разработка и внедрение современных
стандартов качества и технического
регламента производства свинины
•
1.
2nd stage of the national
program “Development of
pork production 2013-2020”
Objective to increase the national sow herd
up to 2.85 mln sows with total pig stock up to
35 mln pigs ( with a moderate scenario) or up
to 45 mln pigs (with an innovative scenario)
Key actions to achieve the targets:
Improvement of economy of pork sector.
2.
Establishment of net of selection centers with
innovative technologies
3.
Reconstruction of existing production facilities
& establishment of new operations within
different organizational models & forms of
business.
4.
Development of slaughter & processing
facilities and feed production for pork industry
5.
Development & introduction of advanced
quality standards & technical regulations of
pork production.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Expansion plan of yearly average swine
stock in 2009-2012 & up to 2020,
2008
(факт)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2020 –
Moderate
2020 –
Innovative
--
65
296
740
1 000
2 000
2 268
3 494
4 028
4 461
5 210
5 273
9 929
16 079
- units with capacity of 216 K heads
799
871
945
1 026
1 042
1 771
2 627
- units with capacity of 198 K heads
721
795
885
967
990
1 875
2 814
-unit with capacity of 54 K heads
545
619
715
793
800
1 400
3 940
- units with capacity from 6 up to 54K heads
1 429
1 742
1 915
2 424
2 441
4 883
6 698
Companies with capacity less than 6 K
heads
3 506
3 662
3 784
4 121
4 205
11 364
12 195
Little farms (kolkhoz)
1 786
1 813
1 721
1 844
1 875
3 289
5 263
Private backyards
8 824
8 373
8 111
8 044
8 148
8 418
9 195
17 609
17 941
18 372
19 960
20 500
35 000
45 000
1 715
1 738
1 766
1 791
1 831
2 779
3 000
’000 Hds
Federal celection centers
Pork operations:
TOTAL
Including sows
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Программа государственной
финансовой поддержки:
2.
3.
4.
5.
1. Единовременные субсидии федерального
бюджета племенным хозяйствам на
первоначальное приобретение свиноматок
хряков с высоким генетическим потенциалом в
размере 20% от стоимости поголовья.
Государственная поддержка ежегодного
обновления основного стада для плем. товар
хозяйств в размере: для племхозяйств 6 тыс.
рублей на голову, для товар. хозяйств 3 тыс.
рублей на голову. Благодаря данному
направлению государственной поддержки
предполагается снизить зависимость
российского свиноводства от поставки
импортных плем животных, сформировать
условия для возрождения и развития
отечественного племенного свиноводства.
Государственная поддержка на содержание
маточного стада племенных хозяйств
отвечающих современным требованиям
племенного дела в размере 5 тыс. рублей на
основную и проверяемую свиноматку основного
стада.
Государственная поддержка товарных продаж
свинины из селекционно-племенных центров с
целью компенсации затрат СГЦ при реализации
свиноматок и хряков из основного стада на
товарное мясо из расчета 20 руб. за килограмм
живого веса
Субсидирование процентных ставок по
инвестиционным кредитам для реконструкции и строительства свиноводческих
мощностей, предприятий по убою и
мясопереработке и предприятий комбикормовой
промышленности, финансовая поддержка НЦ
State financial program:
1.
One-time subsidies from federal budget to
breeding organizations for first purchase of
sows & boars with a high genetic potential in
amount of 20% from the stock value.
2.
State support of annual replacement of the main
herd for breeding & commercial complexes:
6 000 rb/head for breeding units & 3000 Rb/head
for commercial units. With this measure it is
planned to minimize dependence from imported
breeding pigs & form proper conditions for
restoration & further development of local swine
breeding.
3.
State financial support to grow sow stock of the
breeding organizations in amount of 5 000 Rb for
a productive sow in the main herd meeting all
up-to-date requirements of the breeding
operations.
4.
State support of commercial sales of pork from
selection centers with an aim to reimburse
expenses of selection centers for slaughtering
sows & boars from the main herd in amount of
20 Rb per 1 kg live weight.
5.
Subsidies of interests rates of the investment
loans taken for reconstruction & construction
pig production projects, slaughter & processing
facilities projects & feed production operations.
PIC Symposium
2011 | Nashville, TN
Financial support of research
centers.
The Republic produces 2.6M pigs
in 1965!!!
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
The Result….
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Trade Restrictions….
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
…and other Politics
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Animal Welfare Concerns
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 2001/88/EC
of 23 October 2001
amending Directive 91/630/EEC laying down minimum standards for the protection of pig
Sows and gilts shall be kept in groups
during a period starting from 4 weeks
after the service to 1 week before the
expected time of farrowing. The pen
where the group is kept must have sides
greater than 2,8 m in length. When less
than 6 individuals are kept in a group the
pen where the group is kept must have
sides greater than 2,4 m in length.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 2001/93/EC
of 23 October 2001
amending Directive 91/630/EEC laying down minimum standards for the protection of pig
• Focus on:
– Light requirements and maximum noise levels,
– Permanent access to materials for rooting and
playing,
– Permanent access to fresh water,
– Additional restrictive conditions to carry out
mutilations on pigs,
– Minimum weaning age of four weeks.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
UK Herd Size – 1973 - 2010
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
In response 40% of the UK herd is
now outdoors
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Sow Stalls or Group Housing by
2020?
%
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
-
Group Housing
Asia
2011 - PIC Survey
China
Outdoors
Europe
Latin America
Sow Stalls
North America
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
What does the Customer really
want?
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Global Consumption
Chile
Brazil Mexico
2% 0,3%
3%
Other
6%
US
9%
China
49%
EU27
21%
Russia
3%
Philippines
1%
South
Korea
1%
Fapri 2010 World Agriculture Outlook (2009 Data)
Vietnam Japan
3%
2%
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Population
Density
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Future of China’s Protein Consumption
2005 - 2030
Million Tonnes
120
Dairy
110
100
90
80
Pork
70
60
50
40
30
20
Beef
Eggs
Poultry
10
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
0
Source: Brilliant Pioneer Consultant
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Stable increase of rural inhabitants’ income
4761
5000
Unit:
RMB
4000
5153
12.0%
11.0%
4140
10.0%
3587
3255
3000
9.0%
2936
2622
7.4%
9.5%
8%
8.0%
6.8%
8.0%
6.2%
2000
7.0%
6.0%
1000
4.3%
5.0%
0
4.0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Statistics Bureau of China
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
No comparative advantage for
land intensive agriculture
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
The new Integrators
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
PIC Nucleus in Benxi
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Thank you!
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN